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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."