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Increasing concerns exist about the potential of armed conflict among East African countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in the previous year that his government's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Statements

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of reclaiming lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on 16 September that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Border

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown completion events of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

However relations have subsequently deteriorated once more.